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Melbourne Cup: Using Winners History to Predict the 2016 Result

Written by craigsdewar on .

Hi Folks,

In my last post, I shared how I was web scraping daily odds markets and visualising movements to see where the smart punting money was going.

In this post, my goal is to make you one of those smart punters yourself! I will share with you some insights I have gained analysing past win results – to develop a profile of a winning Melbourne cup horse.

You see, I have recently used Alteryx and to download some past results. I found a source that has results of the race since 1861, and a more detailed source with results since 1983.

I had some fun putting it all together into a Tableau datasource – and have published a youtube video showing you how its done.

In the end, I can now reveal to you the attributes of the horse that has the best chance of winning the big race next Tuesday.

The Horse will be a 6yr old male; bay in colour.  He won’t be the favourite, (more in the range of 10/1 to 15/1 odds) – but he did win his last race. He will have the best chance if he can bag being horse number 6 and starting from barrier 11. He should be carrying 54.5kg. He will have an even greater chance if he is ridden by Damien Oliver or Greg Boss, and Trained by Lee Freedman.

So…I hear you ask: Do any of the horses in this years field match these winning attributes?

Well stay tuned for my next blog to find out….

In the meantime – check out my Tableau Public Visualisation:

Link to Tableau Public Viz




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